Quiet Consolidation

The markets are digesting the gains of the last week above the rising 5 day moving averages (orange line). The blue lines on the charts below are the VWAPs since the uptrends began one week ago today. The average price from the rally is a key intermediate term psychological level as it represents the average price for longs and shorts for that period of time. Holding above VWAPs could get shorts to reconsider their bets and cover which would entice more sidelined cash to the long side. Falling below VWAP may cause shorts to get more aggressive as they realize they have won back control of the trend and further pressure would be added as longs liquidate. The trends on longer timeframes are still lower so odds favor a failure but the message isn't clear enough at this point to be aggressive either way. When there is no clear edge, cash is a position if you are not skilled enough to scalp on shorter term timeframes.

Luck of the Irish

Never iron a four-leaf clover, because you don't want to press your luck.
~Unknown

If you're enough lucky to be Irish, you're lucky enough!
~Irish Saying

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/16/09

Retracement Levels

The financials led the market lower and now they are experiencing the strongest bounce from the lows. The XLF is at the 61.8% retracement level and at the area of prior support, now is the time to be very defensive with longs, this is where we have POTENTIAL for resistance to be found. The short term momentum is too strong to short, but but in the interest of maintaining a strong defensive position I had my Mom cancel the stop that was in place at 2830 and instead sell that part of the position at 28.80 to lock in a gain of $2.10. She is still holding 25% of the original position which was purchased at 2670.

Uptrends Remain Intact

The short term uptrends remain intact but they are quite extended at these levels, be sure to have a plan in place to lock in profits. I told my Mom to put a stop on half the remaining balance at 28.30 in the QQQQ, if stopped out she will have 25% of the original position from 26.70

Mathematical or Intuitive

There are two types of minds - the mathematical, and what might be called the intuitive. The former arrives at its views slowly, but they are firm and rigid; the latter is endowed with greater flexibility and applies itself simultaneously to the dive.
~Blaise Pascal

Stock Market Analysis Video 3/15/09

Here is the video of tonight's live session. I will be working to get the audio perfected for future events.


Stock Market Live Analysis 031509 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Stock Market Video Analysis 3/13/09

I will be doing a live event again this Sunday March 15 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last Sunday's event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks. I built a cool little recording booth today which should make recording and uploading the event easier than it has been.

I got the idea for this recording technique from the place my son and I have been taking guitar lessons together. If you are musician JAMSPACEUSA is a great resource for lessons, recording or jamming in a studio environment. I wish their website was better at showing all the cool stuff they offer, but who am I to criticize a website, I'm still using blogger!




Have a great weekend.

Time To Digest?

It is looking like we could be in for a choppy session as the market digest the recent large gains.