AlphaTrends

Backup Mon March 21

2011-03-21T16:17:00.003-04:00

Alphatrends.net is back up and content is available for subscribers, thanks for your patience.

Trade Ideas For 3/21/11

2011-03-19T13:45:00.000-04:00

Correct Web Address

2009-04-20T08:50:00.005-04:00

From this day forward all updates will be made at ALPHATRENDS.NET alphatrends.blogspot.com will no longer be updated.

There is very good free trading information from Ino that you can access by clicking the banner below.

Subscription Service Details

2009-04-19T17:31:00.001-04:00

On April 4, 2006 I started posting market commentary and stock ideas to Alphatrends. Over the last 2 years my average weekday audience has grown to over 9,000 uinque viewers (based on last month of traffic) and my videos have become the #1 most subscribed financial videos on Youtube. If you have been one of the people who helped me grow to these levels I thank you for your trust in my analysis. Just after this 2 year anniversary, I am taking a new direction and am starting a subscription based product in collaboration with the fast rising and awesome www.stocktwits.com

I realize that this decision will upset some of you but it is also a business decision that I am sure you would agree makes sense if you were in my position. I will continue to offer limited free content on this site with general market observations, but if you are truly interested in a focus on finding stock ideas like some recent big winners I have mentioned, short sales like CELG and DVA and longs like FEED, QSII (and may others) then this service is something I would strongly encourage you to subscribe to. Trading stocks and helping others become more successful in the market are both things I am truly passionate about and I think that you will not be let down by the quality and consistency of information offered in this new product, I am truly excited! Below are details of what the subscription will encompass.

1- BROAD MARKET ANALYSIS
End of day video technical analysis of US market trends via some of the most liquid products traded, Exchange Trade Funds (ETF’s). ETF’s are used in the analysis because volume can be measured and analyzed in ETF’s, while trading volume is not available for all of the benchmark averages. Each day after the market closes you will have access to a high resolution video featuring the technical analysis from Brian.
This analysis will cover the Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ), S&P 500 (SPY), Russell 2000 (IWM), and 2 other ETF’s which will be chosen by the subscribers. The choices will be based on some of the most liquid and relevant sectors in the market such as: Financials (XLF), Semiconductors (SMH), Gold (GLD), Oil (USO), Retailers (RTH), Real Estate (IYR), Homebuilders (XHB), etc… This is a unique service which allows your voice to be heard, all requests will be handled by messaging through twitter. If you trade leveraged ETF’s the analysis of the underlying sector can be used to guide your decisions in those products. Keep in mind that leveraged ETFs have their own unique risks including an imperfect relationship to the underlying ETF. In the interest of time, not all of these products can be covered on a regular basis.

2- INDIVIDUAL STOCK ANALYSIS
In addition to the daily market review video there will be a video which covers individual stock trends. This video will be made available at least three times per week; it will offer trading ideas for the next day (usually posted no later than 10 PM EST). This video will take a look at stocks which appear poised for directional movement (long and short) in the short term. Discussion includes potential entry levels where momentum may pickup as well as “worst case” stops for traders. The idea is not to lay out exactly how to trade a stock, but to point you in the right direction to find the stocks that may find momentum in the short term. Each individual will have their favorites amongst the stocks covered; it is up to you to decide which ones are best for you based on your own unique circumstances including but not limited to; risk tolerance, level of patience, capital resources available, time available to watch the market, etc. Please remember that RISK MANAGEMENT IS ALWAYS JOB #1 and you should NEVER commit more than 10% of your trading capital to any one individual idea. If you trade options, this number should never be more than 2% of your risk capital.

3- LIVE ANALYSIS
Each Sunday evening from 8 -9 PM Est., there will be a live analysis of the markets (which will also be recorded and archived for premium members to view at their convenience). This analysis will feature stocks ideas from Brian as well as stocks requested by viewers. We will also cover general trading ideas and there will be a live chat component which allows you to be directly involved.
**BONUS**
Approximately once per month there will be bonus educational live events covering topics that are most relevant to what the subscribers are interested in. Possible subjects will include: VWAP, Pivot Analysis, Interpreting Volume, After Hours Trading, Fibonacci, How to Use Level 2, etc..

This product IS FOR YOU if you:
- Are interested in finding good stocks before they make short term moves.
-Are willing to trade long and short.
-Do not need your hand held for each trade.
-Are looking for opportunity in overlooked stocks you may have never heard of as well as the names you already know.
- Are interested in learning and applying strong risk management to your trades.
- Value honest and objective analysis of market and stock trends.
- Are willing to make each trade your own and accept that ultimate responsibility for each trade is YOURS.

This product IS NOT FOR YOU IF you:
- Expect that every trade will be a winner.
- Are interested in good story or news about why a stock is moving.
- Are unable to sell losers quickly.
- Are more interested in debating the merits of a company and their business than taking a trading position in a stock.
-Want to hear long stories about why XYZ may or may not be a good company.
- Try to pick tops and bottoms in trends.
- If you are looking for perfection, you will find it no where.

The price of this service will be $59/ month or $500 for a full year (30% savings). You will see this site completely change in the next 24 hours and there will be a signup page at that time.

Stock Market Trend Analysis Video 4/17/09

2009-04-17T16:27:00.001-04:00

Final FREE Live event Sunday April 19 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE This event will likely fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks. First come, first serve and I guarantee there will not be time for all of them.

We will follow the same format
1- Market Analysis
2- General Questions (only accepted through one twitter post, 140 characters ((-:, be concise)
3- Stocks I am looking at
4- Reader stocks- Limited time for this **NO MORE REQUESTS, Sunday 2:15PM EST**

I will also talk about the new Premium product and what you can expect so please hold all questions until Monday, thank you.

Stock Market Trend Analysis 4/17/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Shorts On The Run

2009-04-17T13:46:00.001-04:00

Short sellers continue to fight the same battle longs fought most of last year, the battle of momentum. Whatever your reasons for being long or short are, ONLY PRICE PAYS. It has been very easy on the bulls lately and a lot of garbage stocks are moving higher, this type of activity typically comes late in the bullish cycle. As long as momentum remains strong don’t fight it but have one foot halfway out the door, particularly in the little stocks.

Recreation

2009-04-17T08:30:00.001-04:00

Life is best enjoyed when time periods are evenly divided between labor, sleep, and recreation...all people should spend one-third of their time in recreation which is rebuilding, voluntary activity, never idleness.
~Brigham Young

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 4/16/09

2009-04-16T16:19:00.000-04:00

Buyers Maintain Control

2009-04-16T11:46:00.002-04:00

The Nasdaq is back above the rising 5 DMA and prior resistance levels held as support in the SPY, XLF and IWM. Short sellers are still early.

Preparation

2009-04-16T07:47:00.001-04:00

Give me six hours to chop down a tree and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.
~Abraham Lincoln

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 4/15/09

2009-04-15T16:16:00.001-04:00

One thing to note is that while the trendlines were tested intraday, advancing stocks did stay ahead of decliners.

The Battle Continues

2009-04-15T14:26:00.002-04:00

at the 5 DMA and trendline. The A/D line is still positive at 1664:1328 but has been slowly deteriorating

5 Day MA and Trendlines

2009-04-15T11:01:00.002-04:00

The markets are struggling to hold up above the rising 5 day moving averages and above the trendlines from the gap higher on March 10. Failure of the trendlines could lead to a quicker, more sever selloff down towards the VWAPs since the rally began (purple line).

Entitlements

2009-04-15T08:50:00.000-04:00

One of the consequences of such notions as "entitlements" is that people who have contributed nothing to society feel that society owes them something, apparently just for being nice enough to grace us with their presence.
~Thomas Sowell

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 4/14/09

2009-04-14T16:34:00.001-04:00

Choppy

2009-04-14T11:41:00.000-04:00

action in the broad markets and the A/D is negative with 1165 up and 1733 down right now. There are no clear reasons to be aggressively short with rising 5DMAs but the lower highs are a first warning sign. Breaking the lows from the last couple of days could see more significant selling. Got to be nimble.

Investors Memories

2009-04-14T08:42:00.003-04:00

Investors have very short memories.
~Roman Abramovich

Inside Information in FEED?

2009-04-13T22:26:00.000-04:00

Details in this video.

Technical Analysis "LIVE" Session 4.13/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 4/13/09

2009-04-13T17:30:00.001-04:00

Live event TONIGHT, Monday April 13 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last weeks event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks. First come, first serve and guarantee there will not be time for all of them. ***NO MORE REQUESTS***

We will follow the same format as last week
1- Market Analysis
2- General Questions (only accepted through one twitter post, 140 characters ((-:, be concise) **NO MORE REUESTS**
3- Stocks I am looking at
4- Reader stocks

SEROIUSLY, NO EMAILS, thank you.

Stock Market Trend Analysis 4/13/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Extended and Weakening

2009-04-13T11:11:00.001-04:00

The markets are weakeing and below the daily VWAP. After the large move we have seen over the last month the market seems due for a deeper pullback, keep your stops tight on long positions. There are 969 stocks up and 1925 down on the NYSE right now, that will need to improve if the market can turn higher.

Goals

2009-04-13T08:39:00.000-04:00

Failure is not reaching your goal, but in having no goal to reach.
~Benjamin Mays

Financial Stocks and Twitter

2009-04-10T19:01:00.000-04:00

The chart below is a 2 minute chart (each candle represents 2 minutes of trading) in the Financial Sector Spyders (XLF) from Friday. The numbers on the chart line up with my comments (left of the chart) on twitter about the XLF. Each comment is timestamped, the 2 hour difference is my local time versus Eastern time shown on the chart. My original unedited comments are shown along with further, after the fact, explanation in red. I was actually trading the FAS (triple leveraged long) but because there are still many traders and investors who do not understand the unique risks to the leveraged products I focused my comments on the non-leveraged ETF.

See my video discussion with Tim Bourquin about LEVERAGED ETFs (you can fast forward the commercial). I accidentally referred to the QID as double long QQQQ in the video, that is incorrect. QID is double short and the double long symbol is QLD.

The next two charts are the same timeframe (2 minute candles from Friday's trading) as the XLF shown above. The chart on the left shows the double long financial ETF (UYG) while the one on the right shows the triple long financial ETF (FAS).

If you understand the risks and can be disciplined in executing your trades, the leveraged funds may be something worth considering for your own trading. As good as the long side funds acted on Friday, take a look at the double short (SKF) and triple short (FAZ) funds performed on Friday, these things move!

Obstacles

2009-04-10T05:36:00.002-04:00

Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.
~Henry Ford

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 4/9/09

2009-04-09T16:36:00.000-04:00

Live event Monday April 13 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last weeks event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks. First come, first serve and guarantee there will not be time for all of them.

We will follow the same format as last week
1- Market Analysis
2- General Questions (only accepted through one twitter post, 140 characters ((-:, be concise)
3- Stocks I am looking at
4- Reader stocks

Stock Market Trend Analysis 4/9/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Financials Break Resistance

2009-04-09T11:57:00.000-04:00

These 30 minute charts show how extended some of the markets have gotten, but shorting into this momentum has not made sense for more than quick intraday trades. Most interesting now will be if the financials can hold above the prior resistance at 9.75.

Perserverance

2009-04-09T06:34:00.002-04:00

Perseverance is the hard work you do after you get tired of doing the hard work you already did
~Newt Gingrich

Stock Market Video Trend Review 4/8/09

2009-04-08T16:21:00.000-04:00

Stock Market Analysis 4/8/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

When to Sleep

2009-04-08T06:08:00.000-04:00

If men swear that they want to harm you when you are asleep, you can go to sleep. If women say so, stay awake.
~African Proverb

Testing The 5DMA

2009-04-07T11:27:00.000-04:00

Markets gapped lower this morning and are attempting to recover but the short term pattern of lower highs and lower lows and continued weakness of the advance/decline (now 693: 2128) gives reason for further concern.

Reflection

2009-04-07T06:06:00.000-04:00

One can not reflect in streaming water. Only those who know internal peace can give it to others.
~Lao Tzu

"Live" Analysis Recording 4/6/09

2009-04-06T23:21:00.001-04:00

2nd Try Live Analysis 4/6/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis

2009-04-06T16:22:00.003-04:00

Live event TONIGHT at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last Sunday's event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks.

We will follow the same format as last week
1- Market Analysis
2- General Questions (only accepted through one twitter post, 140 characters ((-:, be concise)
3- Stocks I am looking at
4- Reader stocks

Stock Market Analysis 4/6/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Use Caution

2009-04-06T10:46:00.000-04:00

The negative advance/decline ratio continues to give us reason for concern at these extended levels. As mentioned Friday, a test of the 5 DMA would not be surprising and the level of greater importance ramains the VWAP from the beginning of this uptrend.

Socialism

2009-04-06T06:04:00.000-04:00

Live Technical Analysis Monday April 6

2009-04-03T11:58:00.005-04:00

I will not be back from Phoenix until later on Sunday so I will be doing a live event next Monday April 6 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last Sunday's event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks.

Choppy Action Today

2009-04-03T10:44:00.002-04:00

The market is off to a slow start but the advance decline is as negative and that gives us reason to think the market may pull back deeper. The market has experienced a very large rally over the last 3 1/2 weeks and a pullback to the 5 DMA would not be out of line here. We also have to keep in mind that a failure of yesterday's move could be setting up a larger bull trap. The markets remain comfortable above the VWAP since this uptrend began so there is no reason to look at short side trades as scalps for now.

Positivity

2009-04-03T05:30:00.001-04:00

Be vigilant, guard your mind against negative thoughts.
~Buddha

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 4/2/09

2009-04-02T16:26:00.000-04:00

Stock Market Trend Analysis 4/2/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Must Do

2009-04-02T06:29:00.000-04:00

If you can't, you must. If you must, you can.
~Anthony Robbins

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 4/1/09

2009-04-01T16:22:00.000-04:00

Stock Market Trend Analysis 4/1/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Battle Between 5DMA and VWAP

2009-04-01T11:06:00.000-04:00

The markets continue to be confined by the declining 5DMA as resistance and the VWAP from 3/10 as support. Until one of these gives, I am keeping trades very short term.

Possible Trade Pattern

2009-04-01T09:06:00.004-04:00

for Celgene (CELG) today. I covered my short position this morning at 39.15 (nice gift)and the sketch below is an approximation of how trading could occur today. This is a pattern I have observed in many stocks which gap lower on news. Keep in mind that it is not a prediction of what will happen, but a possible scenario. It is likely that I will be trading this stock aggressively if the stock trades similar to what I have outlined.

1-Gap lower, people rush in to buy sending the stock higher
2- that rally fails to hold and the stock then experiences a drop to new lows on increasing volume.
3-The stock the experineces another small bounce
4- which fails to hold and sellers re emerge to take prices to a lower low.
5- This low occurs on lighter volume and is often the morning low which holds.

Necessities

2009-04-01T05:26:00.000-04:00

We live in an age when unnecessary things are our only necessities.
~Oscar Wilde

Free Real Time VWAP Charts

2009-03-31T16:59:00.001-04:00

I have received tons of questions and as of today there is a free resource with VWAP.

Free Real Time VWAP Charting from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/31/09

2009-03-31T16:16:00.001-04:00

Stock Market Trend Analysis 3/31/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Impressive but Tough to Trust

2009-03-31T14:15:00.002-04:00

gives the shorts something to think about. Qs and IWM the strongest, now testing prior support.

Nice Bounceback

2009-03-31T10:52:00.000-04:00

from yesterday's drop. The markets are above the VWAP from the March 10 gap and it appears the bulls aren't quite ready to roll over and die...yet. If you have been trading long this morning, it looks like a good place to tighten stops just below the 5DMA and then monitor the 1 minute charts for short entries. Failure to push up through the 5DMA could lead to a bigger break lower on the next test of the VWAP on these charts.

Truth

2009-03-31T05:23:00.001-04:00

One of the hardest things to teach a child is that the truth is more important than the consequences.
~Q.A. Battista

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/30/09

2009-03-30T16:22:00.000-04:00

VWAP of The Rally

2009-03-30T15:02:00.000-04:00

Since this rally began on March 10th, the buyers have maintained control of the trend as evidenced by the rising Volume Weighted Average Price from that date. The financials have broken below that level and other markets are close to breaking, be careful.

Trendlines Broken

2009-03-30T10:53:00.000-04:00

The uptrend lines since this rally began have been broken today, the markets are below the flat/declining 5 DMAs and the VWAP (purple MA) since the rally began is now coming into play. A bounce from these levels will give good indication as to the conviction of the buyers of the recent rally. Be very defensive.

Satisfaction

2009-03-30T05:22:00.001-04:00

I am easily satisfied with the very best.
~Winston Churchill

Shooting the Bull

An Oklahoma Indian walks into a cafe with a shotgun
in one hand pulling a male buffalo with the other..
He says to the waiter: 'Want coffee.'
The waiter says, 'Sure, Chief. Coming right up.'
He gets the Indian a tall mug of coffee.
The Indian drinks the coffee down in one gulp,
turns and blasts the buffalo with the shotgun,
causing parts of the animal to splatter everywhere
and then just walks out.

The next morning the Oklahoma Indian returns.
He has his shotgun in one hand, pulling
another male buffalo with the other.
He walks up to the counter and says to the waiter 'Want coffee.'
The waiter says 'Whoa, Tonto! We're still cleaning up your mess from
yesterday.
What was all that about, anyway?'
The Indian smiles and proudly says 'Training for position in United States
Congress:
Come in, drink coffee, shoot the bull, leave mess for others to clean up,
disappear for rest of day.

Stock Market Video 3/29/09

2009-03-29T22:35:00.003-04:00

This is the video recording of this evening's broadcast. I am still working on perfecting the audio, not quite there yet...

Stock Market Analysis 3/29/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Earth Hour & Extreme Sheep

2009-03-28T16:02:00.001-04:00

Tonight from 8:30-9:30PM Time zone by time zone, nearly 4,000 cities and towns in 88 countries joined the event sponsored by the World Wildlife Fund to DIM NONESSENTIAL LIGHTS in recognition of EARTH HOUR

The lights on these sheep are probably non-essential, but fun.

Stock Market Video Analysis 3/27/09

2009-03-27T16:15:00.001-04:00

I will be doing a live event again this Sunday March 29 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last Sunday's event did fill up so be sure to register early. NO more requests, I received far too many and will not be able to get to them all, thanks.

We will follow the same format as last week
1- Market Analysis
2- General Questions (only accepted through one twitter post, 140 characters ((-:, be concise)
3- Stocks I am looking at
4- Reader stocks

Humor

2009-03-27T05:21:00.000-04:00

Through humor, you can soften some of the worst blows that life delivers. And once you find laughter, no matter how painful your situation might be, you can survive it.
~Bill Cosby

Finviz Stock Screener

2009-03-26T12:07:00.000-04:00

is free and there is a lot of other good information on their site FINVIZ

Here is a short introduction to the free service. The password is finviz

Finviz.com Review from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Who You Are

2009-03-26T06:18:00.002-04:00

To wish you were someone else is to waste the person you are.
~Unknown

Stock Market Close 3/25/09

2009-03-25T18:32:00.004-04:00

The blue line is the VWAP since this move began, buyers remain in control but the market seems to be churning here above the trendlines.

Check out the new STOCKTWITS BLOG which I will be part of with a subscription product soon.

Volume By Price Charts

2009-03-25T12:06:00.000-04:00

from BIGCHARTS are a free tool which allows you to view where the volume occurred in the market. These levels show where price has "memory" and are often levels of support or resistance not seen with traditional support and resistance. These levels are somewhat similar to VWAP, but I don't think as useful, but they are free. Here is how to use them. The password is bigcharts

Bigcharts.com Volume By Price from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Being Lost

2009-03-25T06:46:00.000-04:00

If you don't know where you are going, any road will get you there.
~Lewis Carroll

VWAP Charts 3/24/09 Close

2009-03-24T18:54:00.000-04:00

Earlier in the day I suggested on twitter that the 2 day VWAP would be significant TODAY and after holding those levels for most of the day, they were violated late in the afternoon. The significance of the 2 day VWAP is that the average long participant since the "new Geithner plan" is now in a losing position and the average short is in a profitable position. While it is just a 2 day battle, it is significant because of the strong emotion associated with the large advance yesterday. Of course, the 2 day chart has to be looked at in a larger context as well. See the chart of the same indexes since the 3/10 move began below.

The charts below are 20 minute candles with the VWAP since the 3/10 move began (purple MA), the 5 DMA (orange). The 5 day MA's are still advancing as is the average price since the rally began so it is still too early to look for a complete failure. These moving averages and the trendlines will be important areas to watch for potential support to emerge from as it looks like the market may be at the beginning of a more meaningful pullback with the short term lower highs and lower lows.

In other important news...

Brett Steenbarger

2009-03-24T16:12:00.002-04:00

has written what I think is his best book yet. I have a ton of respect for "Dr. Brett" because he possesses the rare combination of being an experienced (and successful) trader as well an excellent psychologist. Being a trader and trained psychologist allows for a unique insight into the minds of traders which Brett's new book does. The Daily Trading Coach: 101 Lessons for Becoming Your Own Trading Psychologist (Wiley Trading) is broken into 10 Chapters which are further dissected into a total of 101 easy to read and implement lessons.

As I looked through my copy, I did a little experiment which was to open up to random pages and see if there was something useful on that page, every single time was a success.

pg 22 "Negative thoughts are inevitable: the questio is whether you buy into them"
pg 87 "When we master one level of challenge, we build resilience for the next level"
pg 178 "When the thought-stopping is dramatic, the mind-shift can be equally radical"
pg 255 "Thematic thinking turns market data into market hypotheses."
pf 275 "The edge in trading is so small and quite often elusive that it is imperative to understand market dynbamics/structure and where my personal edge lies" LOL- read the book to understand the humor here...

There simply was not a page that does not great insight into the mental game of trading and how to reprogram your mindset for success.

Also, if you do not read BRETT'S BLOG each day, you should start making it part of your daily routine. In addition to the psychological insights, Brett has some excellent and unique research which often mentions my favorite tool, VWAP.

Experience

2009-03-24T05:43:00.002-04:00

Experience is the best teacher, but a fool will learn from no other.
~Benjamin Franklin

Stock Market Close Charts 3/23/09

2009-03-23T18:54:00.000-04:00

The Nasdaq is up nearly 4% for the year and the financials have erased half of their YTD losses with this months 24.74% rally and they are now down "only" 24% in 2009! I had a great powder day today, but I cannot help but wonder how I would have done if, instead of floating on fresh snow, I was trading. The market will be here after my week off, but today's upside move was enough for me to temporarily wonder...

Today's trading saw a wobbly start after the large gap higher, but quickly reclaimed VWAP and never looked back. These charts are a great example of why daytrades should generally be done in the direction of the VWAP for the day.

We have been observing the Volume Weighted Average Price since the gap higher on March 10 and you can see why the average price since "the bottom" remains a key benchmark to observe.

Stock Market Education

2009-03-23T16:12:00.003-04:00

I receive a lot of questions about sources of learning for market information and the video below takes you on a brief tour of what is one of the best deals out there. You can sign up for a free trial by clicking the banner below and then it is just $100 for a full year of 24/7 access.

Education

2009-03-23T06:08:00.004-04:00

Education is not filling a bucket, but lighting a fire.
~William Butler Yeats

Stock Market Video Analysis 3/22/09

2009-03-22T23:25:00.002-04:00

Here is the video of this evening's live analysis.

Stock Market Analysis 3/22/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/22/09

2009-03-20T16:23:00.000-04:00

I will be doing a live event again this Sunday March 22 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last Sunday's event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks.

We will follow the same format as last week
1- Market Analysis
2- General Questions (only accepted through one twitter post, 140 characters ((-:, be concise)
3- Stocks I am looking at
4- Reader stocks

Volume Weighted Average Price

2009-03-20T10:40:00.004-04:00

It is too early to make the call that the bullishness is over with the markets remain above the Volume Weighted Average Prices (VWAP) since the rally began on the 10th (blue horizontal lines), but there are clear reasons to be cautious. Breaking those VWAP levels (which are constantly changing with new data points) would put the average buyer at a loss and give control back to sellers. The uptrend lines, pointed out yesterday, have been broken int he SPY and the XLF and it is looking like the QQQQ and IWM have put in lower highs. Keep a close eye on the XLF, it has lead the market for the last 18 months and its relative weakness is reason to be concerned.

Self Control

2009-03-20T06:05:00.001-04:00

Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain but it takes character and self control to be understanding and forgiving.
~Dale Carnegie

Stock Market Close 3/19/09

2009-03-19T21:32:00.001-04:00

No video this evening.

30 Minute Trendlines

2009-03-19T14:41:00.002-04:00

The 30 minute charts below show the magnitude of the recent rallies. A break of the uptrend lines could lead to a more meaningful pullback towards the prior resistance levels.

Tiring

2009-03-19T11:01:00.000-04:00

Markets seem to be getting tired after yesterday's larger volume move. The trend is still higher and there are 1854 advancing stocks vs 1054 decliners right now, so the short side should be approached cautiously.

Wisdom

2009-03-19T07:33:00.001-04:00

Wisdom is not a product of schooling but of the lifelong attempt to acquire it.
~Albert Einstein

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/18/09

2009-03-18T16:20:00.000-04:00

Charts Ahead of the Fed

2009-03-18T12:37:00.000-04:00

The rising 5 day moving averages show the path of least resistance continues to be higher in the intermediate term. Early short sellers are learning the same lessons that the early buyers below the declining 5 DMAs learned over the last month, it doesn't pay to fight the trend. With the Federal Reserve statement coming at 2:15PM the primary objective should be risk management and making sure you have a strategy to realize long side gains of the last week.

Where has the market come from? Large rally of the last week has not seen any real profit taking.

Where does it have the potential to go before it is likely to meet a source of supply which may slow the ascent? Current levels have been important support/resistance recently.

Character

2009-03-18T05:22:00.001-04:00

People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character.
~Ralph Waldo Emerson

Buy Howard Lindzon's Book If You Like Money

2009-03-17T18:40:00.002-04:00

One of the biggest problems with Wall St is the lack of independent thinking. It seems as though any good idea gets piled on until it no longer works and then the game becomes one of blame and excuses of a “perfect storm which couldn’t be avoided”, etc. The lack of personable responsibility can be sickening if you pay much attention, which I try not to do. I find it more refreshing to listen to truly independent “visionary” types who move forward with a positive attitude.

At the top of the list of those with insightful observations is my friend Howard Lindzon. If you don’t know Howard, he is entrepreneurial, smart, outspoken and funny; a great combination in this industry full of “stuffed shirt” types. Because of these characteristics, Howard has become quite successful in creating many businesses. I am not trying to kiss Howards ass, just let you know the background and the point of view he writes from in his excellent book “The Wallstrip Edge”. Howard isn’t a chart guy like me, but his strategy of buying good brands combined with strong price momentum makes sense to me from an investing point of view. Something that we both agree upon is managing risk, you cannot just buy and hold, and Howard devotes an entire chapter to money management.

I am not going to do a long review of the book, instead I am going to ask you to trust me that it is a well spent $25 if you take the market seriously. You can buy the book on his WEBSITE

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/17/09

2009-03-17T16:23:00.000-04:00

"Mom Trade" CLOSED

2009-03-17T15:35:00.002-04:00

For those who have been following along, this trade has been closed.

Short Squeeze Coming in SNDA?

2009-03-17T12:13:00.000-04:00

I'm long a little.

Quiet Consolidation

2009-03-17T11:23:00.002-04:00

The markets are digesting the gains of the last week above the rising 5 day moving averages (orange line). The blue lines on the charts below are the VWAPs since the uptrends began one week ago today. The average price from the rally is a key intermediate term psychological level as it represents the average price for longs and shorts for that period of time. Holding above VWAPs could get shorts to reconsider their bets and cover which would entice more sidelined cash to the long side. Falling below VWAP may cause shorts to get more aggressive as they realize they have won back control of the trend and further pressure would be added as longs liquidate. The trends on longer timeframes are still lower so odds favor a failure but the message isn't clear enough at this point to be aggressive either way. When there is no clear edge, cash is a position if you are not skilled enough to scalp on shorter term timeframes.

Luck of the Irish

2009-03-17T05:39:00.004-04:00

Never iron a four-leaf clover, because you don't want to press your luck.
~Unknown

If you're enough lucky to be Irish, you're lucky enough!
~Irish Saying

Stock Market Video Trend Analysis 3/16/09

2009-03-16T16:23:00.000-04:00

Retracement Levels

2009-03-16T13:01:00.003-04:00

The financials led the market lower and now they are experiencing the strongest bounce from the lows. The XLF is at the 61.8% retracement level and at the area of prior support, now is the time to be very defensive with longs, this is where we have POTENTIAL for resistance to be found. The short term momentum is too strong to short, but but in the interest of maintaining a strong defensive position I had my Mom cancel the stop that was in place at 2830 and instead sell that part of the position at 28.80 to lock in a gain of $2.10. She is still holding 25% of the original position which was purchased at 2670.

Uptrends Remain Intact

2009-03-16T10:53:00.002-04:00

The short term uptrends remain intact but they are quite extended at these levels, be sure to have a plan in place to lock in profits. I told my Mom to put a stop on half the remaining balance at 28.30 in the QQQQ, if stopped out she will have 25% of the original position from 26.70

Mathematical or Intuitive

2009-03-16T06:19:00.000-04:00

There are two types of minds - the mathematical, and what might be called the intuitive. The former arrives at its views slowly, but they are firm and rigid; the latter is endowed with greater flexibility and applies itself simultaneously to the dive.
~Blaise Pascal

Stock Market Analysis Video 3/15/09

2009-03-15T22:34:00.001-04:00

Here is the video of tonight's live session. I will be working to get the audio perfected for future events.

Stock Market Live Analysis 031509 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Stock Market Video Analysis 3/13/09

2009-03-13T16:11:00.002-04:00

I will be doing a live event again this Sunday March 15 at 8PM Eastern you can REGISTER HERE Last Sunday's event did fill up so be sure to register early. Once again, NO EMAILS if there is a stock (ONLY ONE PER PERSON) you would like me to look at, twitter requests ONLY, thanks. I built a cool little recording booth today which should make recording and uploading the event easier than it has been.

I got the idea for this recording technique from the place my son and I have been taking guitar lessons together. If you are musician JAMSPACEUSA is a great resource for lessons, recording or jamming in a studio environment. I wish their website was better at showing all the cool stuff they offer, but who am I to criticize a website, I'm still using blogger!

Have a great weekend.

Time To Digest?

2009-03-13T10:48:00.001-04:00

It is looking like we could be in for a choppy session as the market digest the recent large gains.

Happiness

2009-03-13T05:59:00.000-04:00

Being happy doesn't mean that everything is perfect. It means that you've decided to look beyond the imperfections.
Unknown

Stock Market Video Analysis 3/12/09

2009-03-12T16:19:00.005-04:00

Stock Market Trend Analysis 3/12/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Mom Out of Half

2009-03-12T14:07:00.001-04:00

We remain in a bear market and it is prudent to realize profits on long positions.

Here was THE ENTRY for this trade.

Textbook Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern

2009-03-12T12:25:00.000-04:00

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has broken the downtrend line which has been intact since Feb 6. At the same time it has completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern with price now at the important neckline. A move above the neckline would project a continued rally equal to the height of the head to the neckline (blue arrows) near 41. The 41.00 level is also an approximate 50% retracement of the decline from Feb 6 high to the recent low. Also shown on the chart are the 5 day MA (red) 10 DMA (blue) and 20 DMA (greeen). The primary trend remains lower so be sure to protect profits and let the market action dictate how long to hold. Be prepared for anything.

3 Day VWAPs Held

2009-03-12T10:35:00.002-04:00

The VWAP from the move which began on Tuesday held as support and now the markets are back up to key levels of prior support. Mom's stop on QQQQ is now at 27.42 which would lock in approximately one dollar from entry.

The Battle Rages On

2009-03-12T08:48:00.001-04:00

You have to be prepared for all scenarios.

Obstacles

2009-03-12T05:58:00.000-04:00

Obstacles are things a person sees when he takes his eyes off his goal.
~E. Joseph Cossman

Stock Market Video Analysis 3/11/09

2009-03-11T16:23:00.004-04:00

The chart below is of the SPY, everything in the yellow box is completely made up. It is not a prediction, just a scary (if you aren't prepared for it) scenario that could occur. As mentioned in the video, I have small long exposure, but I am not comfortable being long in a bear market.

Stock Market Video Analysis 3/11/09 from brian shannon on Vimeo.

Digesting Gains

2009-03-11T11:09:00.002-04:00

I am not expecting big direction in the broad markets as they digest yesterday's gains at key levels. Breadth remains strong with 2061 Advancers and 869 Decliners. A slight pullback would be welcome.